Abortion, marijuana votes spotlight disconnect between Ohioans, Republican leaders

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COLUMBUS, Ohio – Republicans appeared to be on the cusp of banning abortion completely in Ohio in November 2022, after they once again swept Ohio’s statewide offices and consolidated their control of the Ohio Supreme Court.

Now just a year later, Ohio voters have added sweeping legal guarantees for abortion access to the state constitution while also legalizing recreational marijuana for those 21 and older.

The development is a punctuation mark to voters’ rejection of a related, Republican-backed proposal to make it harder to amend the state constitution in August. It’s also a rebuke of the political course charted by Republican state lawmakers, who hold a veto-proof supermajority in Columbus, on two hot-button social issues, and challenges assumption about Ohio’s political status.

The degree to which Ohio is safe ground for Republicans could decide whether Democrats maintain their razor-thin majority in the U.S. Senate in 2024. Longtime Sen. Sherrod Brown up for reelection next year in what will be one of the highest-stakes and most closely watched elections in the country.

Tuesday’s election reinforces that voters may be less likely to vote for Democrats, but given the chance, could approve individual progressive policies when they’re placed on the ballot. The results portend a potential future flood of left-leaning ballot issues, in addition to ballot issues that would hike the state minimum wage to $15 an hour and replace the state-run redistricting panel with a citizen’s commission.

But it also raises a more central question about Ohio politics: Why is Columbus so far removed from what voters apparently want when it comes to these two high-profile social issues?

Two failed approaches to two ballot issues

Ohio Republicans faced a consequential decision in late 2022, as the ballot issue that became Issue 1 began to take shape.

Would they change state abortion law to clarify or expand exemptions to the state’s existing six-week abortion ban? Gov. Mike DeWine, who signed the law in January 2019, counseled the move as a way to present voters with a different, more politically palatable baseline for abortion restrictions in the state.

Instead, Senate President Matt Huffman and other Republicans sought to sabotage Issue 1. With Secretary of State Frank LaRose’s backing, they voted in May to set an August election to try to convince voters to move the goal posts for passing any constitutional amendment.

The proposal was significantly out of step with Ohioans. Voters rejected the proposal in August 57% to 43%. As of late Tuesday evening, Issue 1 was passing by a similar margin, with 56% support.

Then there’s Issue 2. The measure’s backers filed petitions with the legislature in January, giving lawmakers a chance to either pass what became Issue 2, or to pass their own law legalizing marijuana.

The legislature, led by Huffman, decided to do nothing.

And voters approved both issues on Tuesday.

No competitive GOP districts

The path they took makes sense when you consider that most Republican lawmakers only have to worry about winning the primary election, when GOP voters overwhelmingly oppose abortion, and not in November, when the electorate includes a wider swath of voters whose views track more closely to Tuesday’s election result.

In last year’s legislative elections, the first and only held under Republican-drawn district lines, Republicans were favored to win 54 of 99 house seats and 18 of 33 Senate seats. While Republicans can pick up extra seats by winning slightly Democratic districts – which they did last year, getting 59% of the vote and 65% of House seats during a strong year nationally for the GOP – nearly all Republican-leaning seats are safe.

This means most Republican lawmakers’ biggest political concern is winning a primary election.

Consider the lawmakers who have proposed banning abortion completely.

In November 2021, 33 Ohio House Republicans – more than half of the GOP caucus – co-sponsored a bill that would ban all abortions in Ohio, with no exceptions for rape or incest. Twenty-nine of that bill’s sponsors stood for reelection last year. They won with an average of 76% of the vote.

In October 2022, 22 Republican legislators pledged to end abortion while standing on the steps of the Ohio Statehouse at a rally organized by the anti-abortion groups. Those that stood for reelection last year won with an average of 84%. That includes state Sen. Rob McColley, a Northwest Ohio Republican who’s expected to be the next president of the Ohio Senate.

Those structural advantages help explain how a Republican-dominated state legislature would weigh banning abortion completely, then consider and decline to add limited new exceptions, just a year before voters overwhelmingly add it to the constitution.

There are some other factors at play. Ballot issues are unique. They give voters a chance to weigh an individual policy, rather than consider a given candidates’ array of positions and qualifications.

For instance, Ohio reelected DeWine, who signed the state’s six-week abortion law shortly after taking office, by 25 points just last year over a Democratic opponent who ran on a pro-abortion rights platform. A similar electorate approved Issue 1 on Tuesday. It probably also helps that the issue didn’t have a partisan affiliation on the ballot, stripping it of the baggage that the Democratic Party carries with many voters in Ohio.

And, there’s a history of Republican states voting to legalize marijuana as voters in Missouri did in 2022 while also electing Republican Sen. Eric Schmitt by 13 percentage points.

But especially when you consider the specific approach the legislature took to Issues 1 and 2, it’s hard to overlook the role of gerrymandering as a contributing factor.

What’s next for Republicans?

Including Tuesday’s election in Ohio, abortion-rights backers now are 7-0 when the issue has appeared on the ballot, all following the overturning of Roe v. Wade in June 2022. The losing streak will force abortion opponents to debate whether they should adopt a more measured approach and come up with a policy that might in competitive states.

Some Republican have pointed to a 15-week ban on abortion, which polling suggests would have broad popular support. It’s unclear though whether the GOP primary system would allow such a relatively compromising approach, since somewhere between 89% and 97% of abortions that currently occur in Ohio would continue to be legal, according to data from the Ohio Department of Health

In their post-Election Night statements, Ohio’s state Republican legislative leaders aren’t showing signs of changing their approach.

Huffman, who is expected to challenge House Speaker Jason Stephens following next year’s legislative elections, promised additional ballot issues to undo Issue 1.

“This isn’t the end. It is really just the beginning of a revolving door of ballot campaigns to repeal or replace Issue 1,” Huffman said.

Stephens, a Lawrence County Republican, had a similar, although less specific statement. Republicans also have the option of trying to pass restrictions that pass muster with Issue 1, which allows lawmakers to limit the procedure after viability, around 20 to 22 weeks into pregnancy.

“The legislature has multiple paths that we will explore to continue to protect innocent life. This is not the end of the conversation,” Stephens said.

When it comes to Issue 2, lawmakers have a freer hand. Because it was passed through what’s called an initiated statute, rather than a constitutional amendment, the legislature can change it as it sees fit or even repeal it completely.

It seems unlikely that lawmakers will repeal Issue 2, since doing so likely would invite a future constitutional amendment. Issue 2′s success provides a political road map for marijuana backers, who previously had been reluctant to spend in Ohio.

But short of inflaming the public or the marijuana industry, lawmakers should have pretty wide latitude to make changes to the program.

Huffman and Stephens both indicated they plan to make major changes to the law.

Stephens suggested he would push to divert marijuana revenues – a major portion of which currently is slated to go to a social equity fund – toward county governments.

“Investing in county jail construction and funding law enforcement training across Ohio should be our top priority to make our communities safer,” Stephens said.

Huffman was more specific, saying he also planned to look at dropping limits on THC concentration in marijuana products.

“The General Assembly may consider amending the statute to clarify the questionable language regarding limits for THC and tax rates as well as other parts of the statute.”

Andrew Tobias covers state politics and government for cleveland.com and The Plain Dealer

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